The play of chance

When treatments are compared, any differences in outcome events may simply reflect the play of chance. Increasing the number of events studied in research reduces the likelihood of being misled by the play of chance.

359 RECORDS
78 ARTICLES
1 BLOG

The need to address treatment uncertainties

Principles of Testing

Treatment comparisons are essential

Treatment comparisons must be fair

Biases

Double dummy

The play of chance

Bringing it all together for the benefit of patients and the public

James Lind LibraryIllustrating the development of fair tests of treatments in health care

The play of chance

When treatments are compared, any differences in outcome events may simply reflect the play of chance. Increasing the number of events studied in research reduces the likelihood of being misled by the play of chance.

SORT date ▲ author

359 RECORDS

78 ARTICLES

1 BLOG

al-Razi (10th century CE) Shukuk ala Jalinus. [Doubts about Galen]

Nettleton T (1722) Part of a letter from Dr. Nettleton, physician at Halifax, to Dr. Jurin, R. S. Sec concerning the inoculation of the small pox, and the mortality of that distemper in the natural way. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (1722-1723) 32:209-212.

Boylston Z (1726) Historical account of the small-pox inoculated in New-England, upon all sorts of persons, whites, blacks, and of all ages and constitutions. London: Printed for S. Chandler.

Scheuchzer JG (1729) An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728: With a comparison between the mortality of the natural small-pox, and the miscarriages in that practice; as also some general remarks on its progress. London: J.Peele.

Cassem Algaida Aga (1729) Paper relating to the inoculation of the small-pox, as it is practised in the Kingdoms of Tripoli, Tunis, and Algier. In: Scheuchzer JG. An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728. London: J. Peele, pp 61-63.

Clifton F (1732) The state of physick, ancient and modern, briefly considered: with a plan for the improvement of it. London printed by W Bowyer, for John Nourse without Temple-Bar.

Monro A (1737) Remarks on the amputations of the larger extremities. In: Medical essays and observations. Edinburgh: T & W Ruddimans, pp 321-347.

Cheselden W (1740) The anatomy of the human body. 5th edition. London: William Bowyer.

Monro A (1752) Remarks on the amputations of the larger extremities. In: Medical essays and observations. Edinburgh: Hamilton, Balfour, Neill.

de la Condamine C-M (1754) Mémoire sur l'inoculation de la petite vérole. Lu a l'assemblée publique de l'Académie royale des sciences, le mercredi 24 avril 1754. Paris: Durand.

Franklin B (1759) Some account on the success of inoculation for the small-pox in England and America. London: W Strahan.

Hillary W (1761) An inquiry into the means of improving medical knowledge. London: Hitch and Hawes.

Bilguer JU (1764) A dissertation on the inutility of the amputation of limbs. London: Baldwin, Becket and de Hondt.

Watson W (1768) An account of a series of experiments, instituted with a view of ascertaining the most successful method of inoculating the smallpox. London: J Nourse.

Millar J (1770) Observations on the prevailing diseases in Great Britain. London: Cadell.

White C (1770) Cases in surgery. London: Johnson., p vi, viii.

Charleton R (1770) An inquiry into the efficacy of warm bathing in palsies. Oxford: Clarendon.

Lettsom JC (1774) Medical memoirs of the General Dispensary in London. London: for the Author.

Lettsom JC (1775) On the improvement of medicine in London on the basis of public good. London: Phillips.

Millar J (1779) Observations on the management of the prevailing diseases particularly in the Army and Navy. London, for the author.

Clark J (1780) Observations on fevers, especially of the continued type. London: T Cadell.

Home F (1780) Clinical experiments, histories and dissections. Edinburgh: Creech; London: Murray.

Rollo J (1781) Observations on the diseases which appeared in the Army on St Lucia…, Barbados. Orderson for the author.

Alanson E (1782) Practical observations on amputation, and the after-treatment, 2nd edn. London: Joseph Johnson.

Lavoisier A-L de (1784) Undated documents contained in: Mémoires de Lavoisier, Oeuvres, Tome III. Paris: Imprimerie Impériale, 1865. p 509.

Blane G (1785) Observations on the diseases incident to seamen. London: Joseph Cooper, pp ix.

Black W (1788) A comparative view of the mortality of the human species at all ages. London: Dilly, pp 35-38.

Black W (1789) An arithmetical and medical analysis of the diseases and mortality of the human species. London: J Johnson.

Robertson R (1789) Observations on jail, hospital, or ship fever. New ed. London: for the Author.

Blane G (1789) Observations on the diseases incident to seamen. 2nd edition. London: Cooper.

Robertson R (1790) Essay on fever. London: printed for the author.

Rowley W (1793) The causes of a great number of deaths amongst adults and children. 2nd edn. London: Newbery.

Gordon A (1795) A treatise on the epidemic puerperal fever of Aberdeen. In: Churchill F, ed (1849). Essays on the puerperal fever and other diseases selected from the writings of British authors previous to the close of the eighteenth century. London: Sydenham Society, p 445-500.

Millar J (1798) Observations on the management of diseases in the Army and Navy in reply to Dr. Monroe. London: for the Author.

Millar J (1798) Observations on the conduct of the war. An appeal to the people of Great Britain. London: for the author.

McGrigor J (1801) Account of diseases of the 88th Regiment, during their passage to India, and at Bombay, from December 1798 till June 1800. Annals of Medicine, Vol I Lustrum II, 1:353-369.

Rollo J (1801) A short account of the Royal Artillery Hospital at Woolwich. London: Mawman.

Percival T (1803) Medical ethics or, a code of institutes and precepts adapted to the professional conduct of physicians and surgeons. Manchester: S Russell for J Johnson.

Haygarth J (1803) A letter to Dr Percival on the prevention of infections, fevers… Annals of Medicine. Vol II, Lustrum II, 51-78.

Currie W (1804) Medical reports of the effects of water: cold and warm as a remedy in fever and febrile diseases. Vol. 2. London: M’Creery & Cadell.

Haygarth J (1805) A clinical history of diseases 1. Acute rheumatism. 2. Nodosity of the joints. London: Cadell and Davies.

Sutton T (1806) A practical account of remittent fever. London: Robinson, p 16-17.

Falconer W (1807) A practical dissertation on the effects of the medicinal effects of the Bath waters. London and Bath: Robinson & Crutwell. 3rd edition Bath: Meyler and London: Robinson, pp 29, 40-41, 50-52, 72-74, 99, 101, 106, 115-116, 117, 124.

Haslam J (1809) Observations on madness and melancholy. London: Callow.

Black W (1810) A dissertation on insanity; illustrated with tables and extracted from between two and three thousand cases in Bedlam. London: for the author.

Blane G (1813) Observations on the comparative prevalence, mortality, & treatment of different diseases.... Medico-chirurgical Transactions, Vol 4, p 89-141, London.

Mills T (1813) An essay on the utility of bloodletting in fever Dublin: J.Barlow, for Gilbert and Hodges, London: Longman, Hurst, Rees, Orme and Brown.

MacGrigor J (1816) Sketch of the medical history of the British armies in the peninsula of Spain and Portugal, during the late campaigns. Medico-chirurgical Transactions 6:381-489.

Hutchinson AC (1817) Some further observations on the subject of the proper period for amputating in gun-shot wounds. London: Callow, p16.

de Laplace P-S (1820) Théorie analytique des probabilités [Analytic theory of probabilities]. Oeuvres complètes 7 (3ème édition). Paris:Courcier, page lxxvii.

Hawkins FB (1829) The elements of medical statistics. London: Longman, Rees, Orme, Brown & Green.

Todd TJ (1831) The book of analysis or a new method of experience whereby the induction of the Novum Organon [of Bacon] is made easy of application to medicine, physiology… London, Murray.

Poisson, Dulong, Larrey et Double (1835) Recherches de statistique sur l’affection calculeuse, par M. le docteur Civiale. Comptes rendus hebdomadaires des séances de l’Académie de Sciences [Statistical research on (urinary) stone, by M. Dr Civiale]. Paris: Bachelier, 167-177.

Alcock R (1838) Notes on the medical history and statistics of the British Legion in Spain; comprising the results of gun-shot wounds, in relation to important questions in surgery. London: Churchill, p 8-9, 27, 47, 54, 58-59.

Gavarret LDJ (1840) Principes généraux de statistique médicale: ou développement des régles qui doivent présider à son emploi [General principles of medical statistics: or the development of rules that must govern their use]. Paris: Bechet jeune & Labé.

Alcock R (1840) Observations on injuries of joints and their treatment. Medico - chirurgical Transactions 23: 243-322.

Alcock R (1840-41a) Lectures on amputations and on the nature, progress and termination of the injuries for which it is required (Lecture 1 of 20). Lancet 1:105-111 and passim up to 2:849—858.

Alcock R (1840-41b) Lectures on amputations and on the nature, progress and termination of the injuries for which it is required (Lecture 2 of 20). Lancet 1:217-220 and passim up to 2:849—858.

Bartlett E (1844) An essay on the philosophy of medical science. Philadelphia: Lea and Blanchard.

Schweig G (1854) Auseinandersetzung der statistischen Methode [Deliberation about the statistical method]. Archiv fὔr physiologische Helkunde 13:305-355.

Balfour TG (1854) Quoted in West C. Lectures on the Diseases of Infancy and Childhood. London, Longman, Brown, Green and Longmans, p 600.

Airy GB (1861) On the algebraical and numerical theory of errors of observations and the combination of observations. Cambridge: MacMillan and Co.

Béclard PA (1863) Rapport général sur les prix décernés en 1862 [General report on the prizes awarded in 1862]. Mémoires de l’Académie Impériale de Médecine XXVI, Paris: Ballière, pp. xxii-xxxv.

Bennett JH (1865) The restorative treatment of pneumonia. Edinburgh, AC Black.

Jürgensen T (1866) Klinische Studien über die Behandlung des Abdominalytyphus mittelst des kalten wassers [Clinical studes on the treatment of abdominal typhus with cold water]. Leipzig, Vogel, pviii.

Fick A (1866) Die Medicinische Physik [Medical physics]. Braunschweig,Vieweg, pp 430-447.

Jessen W (1867) Zur analytischen statistik [On analytic statistics]. Zeitschrift for biologie 3:128-136.

Bain A (1870) Logic. London: Longmans, Green, Reader & Dyer p 362.

Liebermeister C (1877) Ueber Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung in Anwendung auf therapeutische Statistik [On the calculus of probabilities applied to therapeutic statistics]. In: Volkmann R (ed), Sammlung Klinischer Vortrȁge, Innere Medicin, No 39, pp 935-962.

Ephraim A (1893) Uber die Bedeutung de statistischen Methode für die Medicin [On the relevance of the statistical method for medicine]. Volkmann’s Sammlung Klinische Vortraege N.F. Innere Medicin 24:706-716. Leipzig: Breitkopf and Härtel.

Heiberg P (1897) Studier over den statistiske undersøgelsesmetode som hjælpemiddel ved terapeutiske undersøgelser [Studies on the statistical study design as an aid in therapeutic trials]. Bibliotek for Læger 89:1-40.

Davenport CB (1899) Statistical methods, with special reference to biological variation. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Pearson K (1904) Report on certain enteric fever inoculation statistics. BMJ 3:1243-1246.

James Lind Library
Illustrating the development of fair tests of treatments in health care

al-Razi (10th century CE)
Shukuk ala Jalinus. [Doubts about Galen]

Nettleton T (1722)
Part of a letter from Dr. Nettleton, physician at Halifax, to Dr. Jurin, R. S. Sec concerning the inoculation of the small pox, and the mortality of that distemper in the natural way. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (1722-1723) 32:209-212.

Boylston Z (1726)
Historical account of the small-pox inoculated in New-England, upon all sorts of persons, whites, blacks, and of all ages and constitutions. London: Printed for S. Chandler.

Scheuchzer JG (1729)
An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728: With a comparison between the mortality of the natural small-pox, and the miscarriages in that practice; as also some general remarks on its progress. London: J.Peele.

Cassem Algaida Aga (1729)
Paper relating to the inoculation of the small-pox, as it is practised in the Kingdoms of Tripoli, Tunis, and Algier. In: Scheuchzer JG. An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728. London: J. Peele, pp 61-63.

Clifton F (1732)
The state of physick, ancient and modern, briefly considered: with a plan for the improvement of it. London printed by W Bowyer, for John Nourse without Temple-Bar.

Monro A (1737)
Remarks on the amputations of the larger extremities. In: Medical essays and observations. Edinburgh: T & W Ruddimans, pp 321-347.

Cheselden W (1740)
The anatomy of the human body. 5th edition. London: William Bowyer.

Monro A (1752)
Remarks on the amputations of the larger extremities. In: Medical essays and observations. Edinburgh: Hamilton, Balfour, Neill.

de la Condamine C-M (1754)
Mémoire sur l'inoculation de la petite vérole. Lu a l'assemblée publique de l'Académie royale des sciences, le mercredi 24 avril 1754. Paris: Durand.

Franklin B (1759)
Some account on the success of inoculation for the small-pox in England and America. London: W Strahan.

Hillary W (1761)
An inquiry into the means of improving medical knowledge. London: Hitch and Hawes.

Bilguer JU (1764)
A dissertation on the inutility of the amputation of limbs. London: Baldwin, Becket and de Hondt.

Watson W (1768)
An account of a series of experiments, instituted with a view of ascertaining the most successful method of inoculating the smallpox. London: J Nourse.

Millar J (1770)
Observations on the prevailing diseases in Great Britain. London: Cadell.

White C (1770)
Cases in surgery. London: Johnson., p vi, viii.

Charleton R (1770)
An inquiry into the efficacy of warm bathing in palsies. Oxford: Clarendon.

Lettsom JC (1774)
Medical memoirs of the General Dispensary in London. London: for the Author.

Lettsom JC (1775)
On the improvement of medicine in London on the basis of public good. London: Phillips.

Millar J (1779)
Observations on the management of the prevailing diseases particularly in the Army and Navy. London, for the author.

Clark J (1780)
Observations on fevers, especially of the continued type. London: T Cadell.

Home F (1780)
Clinical experiments, histories and dissections. Edinburgh: Creech; London: Murray.

Rollo J (1781)
Observations on the diseases which appeared in the Army on St Lucia…, Barbados. Orderson for the author.

Alanson E (1782)
Practical observations on amputation, and the after-treatment, 2nd edn. London: Joseph Johnson.

Lavoisier A-L de (1784)
Undated documents contained in: Mémoires de Lavoisier, Oeuvres, Tome III. Paris: Imprimerie Impériale, 1865. p 509.

Blane G (1785)
Observations on the diseases incident to seamen. London: Joseph Cooper, pp ix.

Black W (1788)
A comparative view of the mortality of the human species at all ages. London: Dilly, pp 35-38.

Black W (1789)
An arithmetical and medical analysis of the diseases and mortality of the human species. London: J Johnson.

Robertson R (1789)
Observations on jail, hospital, or ship fever. New ed. London: for the Author.

Blane G (1789)
Observations on the diseases incident to seamen. 2nd edition. London: Cooper.

Robertson R (1790)
Essay on fever. London: printed for the author.

Rowley W (1793)
The causes of a great number of deaths amongst adults and children. 2nd edn. London: Newbery.

Gordon A (1795)
A treatise on the epidemic puerperal fever of Aberdeen. In: Churchill F, ed (1849). Essays on the puerperal fever and other diseases selected from the writings of British authors previous to the close of the eighteenth century. London: Sydenham Society, p 445-500.

Millar J (1798)
Observations on the management of diseases in the Army and Navy in reply to Dr. Monroe. London: for the Author.

Millar J (1798)
Observations on the conduct of the war. An appeal to the people of Great Britain. London: for the author.

McGrigor J (1801)
Account of diseases of the 88th Regiment, during their passage to India, and at Bombay, from December 1798 till June 1800. Annals of Medicine, Vol I Lustrum II, 1:353-369.

Rollo J (1801)
A short account of the Royal Artillery Hospital at Woolwich. London: Mawman.

Percival T (1803)
Medical ethics or, a code of institutes and precepts adapted to the professional conduct of physicians and surgeons. Manchester: S Russell for J Johnson.

Haygarth J (1803)
A letter to Dr Percival on the prevention of infections, fevers… Annals of Medicine. Vol II, Lustrum II, 51-78.

Currie W (1804)
Medical reports of the effects of water: cold and warm as a remedy in fever and febrile diseases. Vol. 2. London: M’Creery & Cadell.

Haygarth J (1805)
A clinical history of diseases 1. Acute rheumatism. 2. Nodosity of the joints. London: Cadell and Davies.

Sutton T (1806)
A practical account of remittent fever. London: Robinson, p 16-17.

Falconer W (1807)
A practical dissertation on the effects of the medicinal effects of the Bath waters. London and Bath: Robinson & Crutwell. 3rd edition Bath: Meyler and London: Robinson, pp 29, 40-41, 50-52, 72-74, 99, 101, 106, 115-116, 117, 124.

Haslam J (1809)
Observations on madness and melancholy. London: Callow.

Black W (1810)
A dissertation on insanity; illustrated with tables and extracted from between two and three thousand cases in Bedlam. London: for the author.

Blane G (1813)
Observations on the comparative prevalence, mortality, & treatment of different diseases.... Medico-chirurgical Transactions, Vol 4, p 89-141, London.

Mills T (1813)
An essay on the utility of bloodletting in fever Dublin: J.Barlow, for Gilbert and Hodges, London: Longman, Hurst, Rees, Orme and Brown.

MacGrigor J (1816)
Sketch of the medical history of the British armies in the peninsula of Spain and Portugal, during the late campaigns. Medico-chirurgical Transactions 6:381-489.

Hutchinson AC (1817)
Some further observations on the subject of the proper period for amputating in gun-shot wounds. London: Callow, p16.

de Laplace P-S (1820)
Théorie analytique des probabilités [Analytic theory of probabilities]. Oeuvres complètes 7 (3ème édition). Paris:Courcier, page lxxvii.

Hawkins FB (1829)
The elements of medical statistics. London: Longman, Rees, Orme, Brown & Green.

Todd TJ (1831)
The book of analysis or a new method of experience whereby the induction of the Novum Organon [of Bacon] is made easy of application to medicine, physiology… London, Murray.

Poisson, Dulong, Larrey et Double (1835)
Recherches de statistique sur l’affection calculeuse, par M. le docteur Civiale. Comptes rendus hebdomadaires des séances de l’Académie de Sciences [Statistical research on (urinary) stone, by M. Dr Civiale]. Paris: Bachelier, 167-177.

Alcock R (1838)
Notes on the medical history and statistics of the British Legion in Spain; comprising the results of gun-shot wounds, in relation to important questions in surgery. London: Churchill, p 8-9, 27, 47, 54, 58-59.

Gavarret LDJ (1840)
Principes généraux de statistique médicale: ou développement des régles qui doivent présider à son emploi [General principles of medical statistics: or the development of rules that must govern their use]. Paris: Bechet jeune & Labé.

Alcock R (1840)
Observations on injuries of joints and their treatment. Medico - chirurgical Transactions 23: 243-322.

Alcock R (1840-41a)
Lectures on amputations and on the nature, progress and termination of the injuries for which it is required (Lecture 1 of 20). Lancet 1:105-111 and passim up to 2:849—858.

Alcock R (1840-41b)
Lectures on amputations and on the nature, progress and termination of the injuries for which it is required (Lecture 2 of 20). Lancet 1:217-220 and passim up to 2:849—858.

Bartlett E (1844)
An essay on the philosophy of medical science. Philadelphia: Lea and Blanchard.

Schweig G (1854)
Auseinandersetzung der statistischen Methode [Deliberation about the statistical method]. Archiv fὔr physiologische Helkunde 13:305-355.

Balfour TG (1854)
Quoted in West C. Lectures on the Diseases of Infancy and Childhood. London, Longman, Brown, Green and Longmans, p 600.

Airy GB (1861)
On the algebraical and numerical theory of errors of observations and the combination of observations. Cambridge: MacMillan and Co.

Béclard PA (1863)
Rapport général sur les prix décernés en 1862 [General report on the prizes awarded in 1862]. Mémoires de l’Académie Impériale de Médecine XXVI, Paris: Ballière, pp. xxii-xxxv.

Bennett JH (1865)
The restorative treatment of pneumonia. Edinburgh, AC Black.

Jürgensen T (1866)
Klinische Studien über die Behandlung des Abdominalytyphus mittelst des kalten wassers [Clinical studes on the treatment of abdominal typhus with cold water]. Leipzig, Vogel, pviii.

Fick A (1866)
Die Medicinische Physik [Medical physics]. Braunschweig,Vieweg, pp 430-447.

Jessen W (1867)
Zur analytischen statistik [On analytic statistics]. Zeitschrift for biologie 3:128-136.

Bain A (1870)
Logic. London: Longmans, Green, Reader & Dyer p 362.

Liebermeister C (1877)
Ueber Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung in Anwendung auf therapeutische Statistik [On the calculus of probabilities applied to therapeutic statistics]. In: Volkmann R (ed), Sammlung Klinischer Vortrȁge, Innere Medicin, No 39, pp 935-962.

Ephraim A (1893)
Uber die Bedeutung de statistischen Methode für die Medicin [On the relevance of the statistical method for medicine]. Volkmann’s Sammlung Klinische Vortraege N.F. Innere Medicin 24:706-716. Leipzig: Breitkopf and Härtel.

Heiberg P (1897)
Studier over den statistiske undersøgelsesmetode som hjælpemiddel ved terapeutiske undersøgelser [Studies on the statistical study design as an aid in therapeutic trials]. Bibliotek for Læger 89:1-40.

Davenport CB (1899)
Statistical methods, with special reference to biological variation. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Pearson K (1904)
Report on certain enteric fever inoculation statistics. BMJ 3:1243-1246.

Bannerman WB (1905)
Introduction. In: Serum-therapy of plague in India. Scientific Memoirs by Officers of the Medical and Sanitary Departments of the Government of India. Calcutta, India: Office of the Superintendent of Government Printing, pp 1-27.

Goldberger J (1907)
Typhoid "bacillus carriers". In: Rosenau MJ, Lumsden LL, Kastle JH. Report on the origin and prevalence of typhoid fever in the District of Columbia. Hygienic Laboratory, Bulletin No 35, pp 167-174.

Alt K (1909)
Behandlungsversuche mit Arsenophenylglyzin bei Paralytikern [Treatment experiments with arsenophenylglycine in paralytics]. Muenchener Medizinische Wochenschrift 56:1457-1459.

Advisory Committee on Plague Investigations in India (1912)
The serum treatment of human plague. Journal of Hygiene. Plague Supplement II, LVI:326-39.

Brunt D (1917)
The Combination of Observations. Cambridge University Press.

Pearl R (1919)
A statistical discussion of the relative efficacy of different methods of treating pneumonia. Archives of Internal Medicine 24:398-403.