Dramatic effects

Sometimes patients experience responses to treatments which differ so dramatically from their own past experiences, and from the natural history of their illness, that confident conclusions about treatment effects can be drawn without carefully done tests.


JLL Essay
1.2 Why treatment comparisons are essential

Treatments with dramatic effects.

 

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Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus (1550 BCE)
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de Fontaney F (1703)
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Jenner E (1798)
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Cooper A (1801)
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Jenner E (1801)
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Cuming R (1805)
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Lister J (1870)
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Maclagan T (1876)
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O’Dwyer J (1887)
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Murray GR (1891)
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Behring EA, Boer NN, Kossel H (1893)
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Finsen NR (1896)
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Gorgas WC (1902)
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Alt K (1909)
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Wechselmann W (1910)
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McDonagh JER (1912)
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De Quervain JF (1913)
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Marine D, Kimball OP (1920)
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Chick H, Dalyell EJ (1921)
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Banting FG, Best CH, Collip JB, Campell WR, Fletcher AA (1922)
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Maier HW (1926)
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Minot GR, Murphy WP (1926)
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Lewis T (1930)
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Walker MB (1934)
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Lennox WG, Von Storch TJC (1935)
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O’Sullivan ME (1936)
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Colebrook L, Kenny M (1936)
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Colebrook L, Kenny M (1936)
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Colebrook L, Purdie AW (1937)
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Bowie FJ (1938)
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Banks HS (1939)
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Abraham EP, Chain E, Fletcher CM, Gardner AD, Heatley NG, Jennings AM, Florey HW (1941)
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Florey ME, Florey HW (1943)
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Pulvertaft RJPV (1943)
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Blalock A, Taussig HB (1945)
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Christie RV (1946)
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Medical Research Council (1948)
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Christie RV (1948)
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Farber S, Diamond LK, Mercer RD, Sylvester RF, Wolff JA (1948)
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Merk R (1948)
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Appelbaum E, Nelson J, Albin MB (1949)
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Baker C, Brock RC, Campbell M (1950)
Valvulotomy for mitral stenosis; report of six successful cases. BMJ 1:1283–1293.

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Baker C, Brock RC, Campbell M, Wood P (1952)
Valvulotomy for mitral stenosis; a further report on 100 cases. BMJ 1:1043–1055.

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Bickel H, Gerrard J, Hickmans EM. (1953)
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McBride WG (1961)
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Bross ID (1966)
Spurious effects from an extraneous variable. Journal of Chronic Diseases 19:637-47.

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Pennington E, Pennington S (1991)
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Ellis J, Mulligan I, Rowe J, Sackett DL (1995)
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Alsbirk PH (2004)
Strategy for decentralized prevention of angle closure glaucoma in Greenland. International Journal of Circumpolar Health 2004;63 Suppl 2;315-319.

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Glasziou P, Chalmers I, Rawlins M, McCulloch P (2007)
When are randomised trials unnecessary? Picking signal from noise. BMJ 334: 349-351.

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Chalmers I (2017)
The evolution of fair tests of treatments over two millennia: a 23 minute audio commentary. Edited by Hamish Chalmers, using unbroadcast recordings made by Freakonomics Radio, with permission.

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Janiaud P, Serghiou S, Ioannidis JPA (2019)
New clinical trial designs in the era of precision medicine: An overview of definitions, strengths, weaknesses, and current use in oncology. Cancer Treatment Reviews 73:20-30.

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Treasure T (2016).
Documenting the dramatic effects of operative treatment of mitral stenosis. JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.

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Lechuga RI, Castro AC (2016).
Dramatic effects of control measures on deaths from yellow fever in Havana, Cuba, in the early 1900’s. JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.

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Treasure T (2017).
Turning blue babies pink: Alfred Blalock’s shunt for Fallot’s Tetralogy. JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.

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Marson Smith P, Colquhoun D, Chalmers I (2019).
John Henry Gaddum’s 1940 guidance on controlled clinical trials JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.

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Glasziou P, Matthews R, Boutron I, Chalmers I, Armitage P† (2023)
The differences and overlaps between ‘explanatory’ and ‘pragmatic’ controlled trials: a historical perspective. JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.

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