Treatment comparisons are essential

Treatment comparisons are required to take account of the natural course of health problems, placebo effects, and to go beyond impressions about treatment effects. But treatment comparisons need to be fair to avoid untrustworthy and sometimes dangerously incorrect conclusions about the effects of treatments.

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75 ARTICLES
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The need to address treatment uncertainties

Principles of Testing

Treatment comparisons are essential

Treatment comparisons must be fair

Biases

Double dummy

The play of chance

Bringing it all together for the benefit of patients and the public

James Lind LibraryIllustrating the development of fair tests of treatments in health care

Treatment comparisons are essential

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334 RECORDS

75 ARTICLES

1 BLOG

Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus (1550 BCE) Case 25. Instruction for a dislocation of his mandible. (Original in the Rare Book Room, New York Academy of Medicine. Facsimile in Breasted JH (1930)). Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus, IX 2-6. Chicago. University of Chicago Press.

Daniel (6th century BCE) The Book of Daniel, Chapter 1:1-16.

al-Razi (10th century CE) Shukuk ala Jalinus. [Doubts about Galen]

Ibn Hindu (10th-11th century CE; 4th-5th century AH) Miftah al-tibb wa-minhaj al-tullab [The key to the science of medicine and the students' guide].

Ben Cao Tu Jing (11th century) Atlas of Materia Medica. Song Dynasty (960-1279).

al-Razi (10th century CE; 4th century AH) Kitab al-Hawi fi al-tibb [The comprehensive book of medicine].

Ibn Sīnā (c.1012 CE; c.402 AH) Kitab al-Qanun fi al-tibb [Avicenna’s The Canon of Medicine].

Bacon, Roger (1266) Opus maius. MS Digby 325, 15th century manuscript. Bodleian Library, Oxford.

Fioravanti L (1573) Communication addressed to "Illustrissimo e Eccellentissimo Signor Al Protofisico Boldon e al Vicario di Giustizia", 22 xxxx 1573.

Hidalgo de Agüero, Bartolomé (1604) Thesoro de la verdadera cirugía y vía particular contra la común. Sevilla: Francisco Pérez, 1604, pp. 32v.

Bacon F (1645) Franc Baconis de Verulamio / Summi Angliae Cancellarii /Novum organum scientiarum. Lugd. Bat: apud Adrianum Wiingaerde, et Franciscum Moiardum. Aphorism XLVI (pages 45-46).

Starkey G (1657) Natures explication and Helmont’s vindication…Or A short and sure way to a long and sound life. London: printed by E. Cotes for Thomas Alsop at the two Sugar-loaves over against St. Antholins Church at the lower end of Watling Street.

Wiseman R (1676) Eight chirugical treatises. London: R Royston, p 123.

Papin D (1704) 123. Papin an Leibniz. In: Gerland E (1881) Leibnizens und Huygens’ Briefwechsel mit Papin. Berlin:Verlag der Koniglichen Akademie der Wissenschaften. p 328.

Nettleton T (1722) Part of a letter from Dr. Nettleton, physician at Halifax, to Dr. Jurin, R. S. Sec concerning the inoculation of the small pox, and the mortality of that distemper in the natural way. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (1722-1723) 32:209-212.

Massey I (1723) A short and plain account of inoculation. With some remarks on the main argument made use of to recommend that practice, by Mr. Maitland and others. To which is added, a letter to the learned James Jurin, M.D.R.S. Secr. Col. Reg. Med. Lond. Soc. London: W. Meadows.

Boylston Z (1726) Historical account of the small-pox inoculated in New-England, upon all sorts of persons, whites, blacks, and of all ages and constitutions. London: Printed for S. Chandler.

Cassem Algaida Aga (1729) Paper relating to the inoculation of the small-pox, as it is practised in the Kingdoms of Tripoli, Tunis, and Algier. In: Scheuchzer JG. An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728. London: J. Peele, pp 61-63.

Scheuchzer JG (1729) An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728: With a comparison between the mortality of the natural small-pox, and the miscarriages in that practice; as also some general remarks on its progress. London: J.Peele.

Clifton F (1732) The state of physick, ancient and modern, briefly considered: with a plan for the improvement of it. London printed by W Bowyer, for John Nourse without Temple-Bar.

Smellie W (1752) A treatise on the theory and practice of Midwifery. 2nd edition. London: D. Wilson, T Durham, p 224.

Berkeley G (1752) Farther thoughts on tar-water. In: Bishop of Cloyne. A miscellany, containing several tracts on various subjects. London: Tonson and Draper.

Vage (1759) An extract of a letter from Mr Vage, dated at Senegal, Oct. 15, 1759. Medical Observations and Inquiries 1764;2. London: William Johnston, pp 269-272.

Franklin B (1759) Some account on the success of inoculation for the small-pox in England and America. London: W Strahan.

Faure JL (1759) Recueil des pieces qui ont concouru pour le prix de L’Académie Royale de Chirurgie Vol 8 [Collection of reports that competed for the prize of the Royal Academy of Surgery]. Paris, P.Al Le Prieur.

Hillary W (1761) An inquiry into the means of improving medical knowledge. London: Hitch and Hawes.

Repertoire du Regi[s]tre CC (1761) Maladies Vénériennes, et la Chambre Noble [Venereal diseases, and the City Council]. Archives d’Etat de Genève, Arch. Hosp. Aa 104, 18 janvier, p 53, and 6 décembre, pp 135-6.

Lind J (1762) An essay on the most effectual means of preserving the health of seamen, in the Royal Navy. London: D Wilson.

Pierce R (1763) Quoted in Sutherland A. Attempts to revive ancient medical doctrines Volume 1. London: A Millar, pp xxiii-xxiv.

Lind J (1763) Two papers on fevers and infection. London: D Wilson.

Stone E (1764) An account of the success of the bark of the willow in the cure of agues. Philosophical Transactions 53:195-200.

Bilguer JU (1764) A dissertation on the inutility of the amputation of limbs. London: Baldwin, Becket and de Hondt.

Watson W (1768) An account of a series of experiments, instituted with a view of ascertaining the most successful method of inoculating the smallpox. London: J Nourse.

Millar J (1770) Observations on the prevailing diseases in Great Britain. London: Cadell.

Aikin J (1771) Thoughts on hospitals. London: Joseph Johnson.

Lind J (1771) An essay on diseases incidental to Europeans in hot climates. London: Becket and De Hondt.

Gregory J (1772) Lectures on the duties and qualifications of a physician. London: Strahan and Cadell. (new ed.) Edinburgh: Creech.

Cullen W (1772) Clinical lectures. Edinburgh, Feb-April, 218-219.

Sims J (1774) A discourse on the best methods of prosecuting medical enquiries. London: J Johnson, p78-9, 80, 86-88, 99-101.

Lettsom JC (1775) On the improvement of medicine in London on the basis of public good. London: Phillips.

Millar J (1777) Observations on the practice in the medical department of the Westminster General Dispensary. London, by order of the Governors.

Millar J (1779) Observations on the management of the prevailing diseases particularly in the Army and Navy. London, for the author.

Dobson M (1779) A medical commentary on fixed air. Chester: J. Monk.

Home F (1780) Clinical experiments, histories and dissections. Edinburgh: Creech; London: Murray.

Clark J (1780) Observations on fevers, especially of the continued type. London: T Cadell.

Alanson E (1782) Practical observations on amputation, and the after-treatment, 2nd edn. London: Joseph Johnson.

Black W (1782) An historical sketch of medicine and surgery from their origin to the present time. London: J Johnson.

McCausland R (1783) Facts and observations on different medical subjects. Medical Commentaries viii (1781/82), 247-96.

Haygarth J (1784) An inquiry into how to prevent smallpox. Chester and London.

Lavoisier A-L de (1784) Undated documents contained in: Mémoires de Lavoisier, Oeuvres, Tome III. Paris: Imprimerie Impériale, 1865. p 509.

Commission Royale. Bailly A (1784) Rapport des commissaires chargés par le Roi, de l'examen du magnétisme animale [Report of the Comissioners required by the King to examine animal magnetism]. Imprimé par ordre du Roi. Paris: A Paris, de L'Imprimerie Royale.

Fowler T (1785) Medical reports of the effects of tobacco in the cure of dropsies and dysuries.... London: J Johnson.

Fowler T (1786) Medical reports of the effects of arsenic in the cure of agues, remitting fevers and periodic headachs. London: J Johnson, pp 105-107.

Percival T (1788) Essays medical, philosophical and experimental Vol 1.4th ed. Warrington: Eyres, for London: Johnson.

Black W (1788) A comparative view of the mortality of the human species at all ages. London: Dilly, pp 35-38.

Gordon A (1788) The practice of physick. Unpublished manuscript.

Hunter J (1788) A treatise on the venereal disease. London: G Nicol and J Johnson, pp 69-70.

Robertson R (1789) Observations on jail, hospital, or ship fever. New ed. London: for the Author.

Black W (1789) An arithmetical and medical analysis of the diseases and mortality of the human species. London: J Johnson.

Robertson R (1790) Essay on fever. London: printed for the author.

Ferriar J (1792) Medical histories and reflections. Vol 1. London: Cadell and Davies.

Trotter T (1792) Observations on the scurvy. London: Longman, pp 137-138, 184.

Clark J (1792) Observations on the diseases which prevail in long voyages to hot countries. London: J Murray.

Rowley W (1793) The causes of a great number of deaths amongst adults and children. 2nd edn. London: Newbery.

Fordyce G (1793) An attempt to improve the evidence of medicine. Transactions of a Society for the Improvement of Medical and Chirurgical Knowledge. London: J Johnson.

Hunter J (1794) A treatise on the blood, inflammation and gun-shot wounds. London: G Nichol, p 531.

Ferriar J (1795) Medical histories and reflections. Vol. 2. London: Cadell and Davies.

Sutton D (1796) The Inoculator; or Suttonian system of inoculation, fully set forth in a plain and familiar manner. London: Printed for the author.

Millar J (1798) Observations on the conduct of the war. An appeal to the people of Great Britain. London: for the author.

Jenner E (1798) An enquiry into the causes and effects of the variolae vaccinae. London: S Low.

Fordyce G (1798) A third dissertation on fever, Parts I & II. London: J Johnson.

Jenner E (1801) The origin of the vaccine inoculation. Printed by DN Shury, Berwick Street, Soho.

Cooper A (1801) Farther observations on the effects which take place from the destruction of the Membrana Tympani of the ear; with an account of the operation for the removal of a particular species of deafness. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Part 1:435-451.

Fordyce G (1802) A second dissertation on fever. London: J Johnson.

James Lind Library
Illustrating the development of fair tests of treatments in health care

Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus (1550 BCE)
Case 25. Instruction for a dislocation of his mandible. (Original in the Rare Book Room, New York Academy of Medicine. Facsimile in Breasted JH (1930)). Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus, IX 2-6. Chicago. University of Chicago Press.

Daniel (6th century BCE)
The Book of Daniel, Chapter 1:1-16.

al-Razi (10th century CE)
Shukuk ala Jalinus. [Doubts about Galen]

Ibn Hindu (10th-11th century CE; 4th-5th century AH)
Miftah al-tibb wa-minhaj al-tullab [The key to the science of medicine and the students' guide].

Ben Cao Tu Jing (11th century)
Atlas of Materia Medica. Song Dynasty (960-1279).

al-Razi (10th century CE; 4th century AH)
Kitab al-Hawi fi al-tibb [The comprehensive book of medicine].

Ibn Sīnā (c.1012 CE; c.402 AH)
Kitab al-Qanun fi al-tibb [Avicenna’s The Canon of Medicine].

Bacon, Roger (1266)
Opus maius. MS Digby 325, 15th century manuscript. Bodleian Library, Oxford.

Fioravanti L (1573)
Communication addressed to "Illustrissimo e Eccellentissimo Signor Al Protofisico Boldon e al Vicario di Giustizia", 22 xxxx 1573.

Hidalgo de Agüero, Bartolomé (1604)
Thesoro de la verdadera cirugía y vía particular contra la común. Sevilla: Francisco Pérez, 1604, pp. 32v.

Bacon F (1645)
Franc Baconis de Verulamio / Summi Angliae Cancellarii /Novum organum scientiarum. Lugd. Bat: apud Adrianum Wiingaerde, et Franciscum Moiardum. Aphorism XLVI (pages 45-46).

Starkey G (1657)
Natures explication and Helmont’s vindication…Or A short and sure way to a long and sound life. London: printed by E. Cotes for Thomas Alsop at the two Sugar-loaves over against St. Antholins Church at the lower end of Watling Street.

Wiseman R (1676)
Eight chirugical treatises. London: R Royston, p 123.

Papin D (1704)
123. Papin an Leibniz. In: Gerland E (1881) Leibnizens und Huygens’ Briefwechsel mit Papin. Berlin:Verlag der Koniglichen Akademie der Wissenschaften. p 328.

Nettleton T (1722)
Part of a letter from Dr. Nettleton, physician at Halifax, to Dr. Jurin, R. S. Sec concerning the inoculation of the small pox, and the mortality of that distemper in the natural way. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (1722-1723) 32:209-212.

Massey I (1723)
A short and plain account of inoculation. With some remarks on the main argument made use of to recommend that practice, by Mr. Maitland and others. To which is added, a letter to the learned James Jurin, M.D.R.S. Secr. Col. Reg. Med. Lond. Soc. London: W. Meadows.

Boylston Z (1726)
Historical account of the small-pox inoculated in New-England, upon all sorts of persons, whites, blacks, and of all ages and constitutions. London: Printed for S. Chandler.

Cassem Algaida Aga (1729)
Paper relating to the inoculation of the small-pox, as it is practised in the Kingdoms of Tripoli, Tunis, and Algier. In: Scheuchzer JG. An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728. London: J. Peele, pp 61-63.

Scheuchzer JG (1729)
An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728: With a comparison between the mortality of the natural small-pox, and the miscarriages in that practice; as also some general remarks on its progress. London: J.Peele.

Clifton F (1732)
The state of physick, ancient and modern, briefly considered: with a plan for the improvement of it. London printed by W Bowyer, for John Nourse without Temple-Bar.

Smellie W (1752)
A treatise on the theory and practice of Midwifery. 2nd edition. London: D. Wilson, T Durham, p 224.

Berkeley G (1752)
Farther thoughts on tar-water. In: Bishop of Cloyne. A miscellany, containing several tracts on various subjects. London: Tonson and Draper.

Vage (1759)
An extract of a letter from Mr Vage, dated at Senegal, Oct. 15, 1759. Medical Observations and Inquiries 1764;2. London: William Johnston, pp 269-272.

Franklin B (1759)
Some account on the success of inoculation for the small-pox in England and America. London: W Strahan.

Faure JL (1759)
Recueil des pieces qui ont concouru pour le prix de L’Académie Royale de Chirurgie Vol 8 [Collection of reports that competed for the prize of the Royal Academy of Surgery]. Paris, P.Al Le Prieur.

Hillary W (1761)
An inquiry into the means of improving medical knowledge. London: Hitch and Hawes.

Repertoire du Regi[s]tre CC (1761)
Maladies Vénériennes, et la Chambre Noble [Venereal diseases, and the City Council]. Archives d’Etat de Genève, Arch. Hosp. Aa 104, 18 janvier, p 53, and 6 décembre, pp 135-6.

Lind J (1762)
An essay on the most effectual means of preserving the health of seamen, in the Royal Navy. London: D Wilson.

Pierce R (1763)
Quoted in Sutherland A. Attempts to revive ancient medical doctrines Volume 1. London: A Millar, pp xxiii-xxiv.

Lind J (1763)
Two papers on fevers and infection. London: D Wilson.

Stone E (1764)
An account of the success of the bark of the willow in the cure of agues. Philosophical Transactions 53:195-200.

Bilguer JU (1764)
A dissertation on the inutility of the amputation of limbs. London: Baldwin, Becket and de Hondt.

Watson W (1768)
An account of a series of experiments, instituted with a view of ascertaining the most successful method of inoculating the smallpox. London: J Nourse.

Millar J (1770)
Observations on the prevailing diseases in Great Britain. London: Cadell.

Aikin J (1771)
Thoughts on hospitals. London: Joseph Johnson.

Lind J (1771)
An essay on diseases incidental to Europeans in hot climates. London: Becket and De Hondt.

Gregory J (1772)
Lectures on the duties and qualifications of a physician. London: Strahan and Cadell. (new ed.) Edinburgh: Creech.

Cullen W (1772)
Clinical lectures. Edinburgh, Feb-April, 218-219.

Sims J (1774)
A discourse on the best methods of prosecuting medical enquiries. London: J Johnson, p78-9, 80, 86-88, 99-101.

Lettsom JC (1775)
On the improvement of medicine in London on the basis of public good. London: Phillips.

Millar J (1777)
Observations on the practice in the medical department of the Westminster General Dispensary. London, by order of the Governors.

Millar J (1779)
Observations on the management of the prevailing diseases particularly in the Army and Navy. London, for the author.

Dobson M (1779)
A medical commentary on fixed air. Chester: J. Monk.

Home F (1780)
Clinical experiments, histories and dissections. Edinburgh: Creech; London: Murray.

Clark J (1780)
Observations on fevers, especially of the continued type. London: T Cadell.

Alanson E (1782)
Practical observations on amputation, and the after-treatment, 2nd edn. London: Joseph Johnson.

Black W (1782)
An historical sketch of medicine and surgery from their origin to the present time. London: J Johnson.

McCausland R (1783)
Facts and observations on different medical subjects. Medical Commentaries viii (1781/82), 247-96.

Haygarth J (1784)
An inquiry into how to prevent smallpox. Chester and London.

Lavoisier A-L de (1784)
Undated documents contained in: Mémoires de Lavoisier, Oeuvres, Tome III. Paris: Imprimerie Impériale, 1865. p 509.

Commission Royale. Bailly A (1784)
Rapport des commissaires chargés par le Roi, de l'examen du magnétisme animale [Report of the Comissioners required by the King to examine animal magnetism]. Imprimé par ordre du Roi. Paris: A Paris, de L'Imprimerie Royale.

Fowler T (1785)
Medical reports of the effects of tobacco in the cure of dropsies and dysuries.... London: J Johnson.

Fowler T (1786)
Medical reports of the effects of arsenic in the cure of agues, remitting fevers and periodic headachs. London: J Johnson, pp 105-107.

Percival T (1788)
Essays medical, philosophical and experimental Vol 1.4th ed. Warrington: Eyres, for London: Johnson.

Black W (1788)
A comparative view of the mortality of the human species at all ages. London: Dilly, pp 35-38.

Gordon A (1788)
The practice of physick. Unpublished manuscript.

Hunter J (1788)
A treatise on the venereal disease. London: G Nicol and J Johnson, pp 69-70.

Robertson R (1789)
Observations on jail, hospital, or ship fever. New ed. London: for the Author.

Black W (1789)
An arithmetical and medical analysis of the diseases and mortality of the human species. London: J Johnson.

Robertson R (1790)
Essay on fever. London: printed for the author.

Ferriar J (1792)
Medical histories and reflections. Vol 1. London: Cadell and Davies.

Trotter T (1792)
Observations on the scurvy. London: Longman, pp 137-138, 184.

Clark J (1792)
Observations on the diseases which prevail in long voyages to hot countries. London: J Murray.

Rowley W (1793)
The causes of a great number of deaths amongst adults and children. 2nd edn. London: Newbery.

Fordyce G (1793)
An attempt to improve the evidence of medicine. Transactions of a Society for the Improvement of Medical and Chirurgical Knowledge. London: J Johnson.

Hunter J (1794)
A treatise on the blood, inflammation and gun-shot wounds. London: G Nichol, p 531.

Ferriar J (1795)
Medical histories and reflections. Vol. 2. London: Cadell and Davies.

Sutton D (1796)
The Inoculator; or Suttonian system of inoculation, fully set forth in a plain and familiar manner. London: Printed for the author.

Millar J (1798)
Observations on the conduct of the war. An appeal to the people of Great Britain. London: for the author.

Jenner E (1798)
An enquiry into the causes and effects of the variolae vaccinae. London: S Low.

Fordyce G (1798)
A third dissertation on fever, Parts I & II. London: J Johnson.

Jenner E (1801)
The origin of the vaccine inoculation. Printed by DN Shury, Berwick Street, Soho.

Cooper A (1801)
Farther observations on the effects which take place from the destruction of the Membrana Tympani of the ear; with an account of the operation for the removal of a particular species of deafness. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Part 1:435-451.

Fordyce G (1802)
A second dissertation on fever. London: J Johnson.

Percival T (1803)
Medical ethics or, a code of institutes and precepts adapted to the professional conduct of physicians and surgeons. Manchester: S Russell for J Johnson.

Fordyce G (1803)
A fifth dissertation on fever. London: J Johnson.

Currie W (1804)
Medical reports of the effects of water: cold and warm as a remedy in fever and febrile diseases. Vol. 2. London: M’Creery & Cadell.

Cuming R (1805)
On the use of aqua frigida in scalds, in epidemic ophthalmia, and the effects of cold on the human body. Medical and Physical Journal. 14:239-241.

Pearson G, Nihell L, Nelson T, Keate T, Forster T, Carpue JC, Doratt J, Rivers F, Brand EA, de Bruyn P, Heaviside J, Payne T, Sancho W (1805)
Original Vaccine Pock Institution. Edinburgh Medical and Surgical Journal 1:513-515.