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Illustrating the development of fair tests of treatments in health care
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ADDITIONAL METHODS - NEED FOR COMPARISON
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Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus (1550 BCE)
Case 25. Instruction for a dislocation of his mandible. (Original in the Rare Book Room, New York Academy of Medicine. Facsimile in Breasted JH (1930)). Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus, IX 2-6. Chicago. University of Chicago Press.
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Daniel (6th century BCE)
The Book of Daniel, Chapter 1:1-16.
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Ben Cao Tu Jing (11th century)
Atlas of Materia Medica. Song Dynasty (960-1279).
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al-Razi (10th century CE; 4th century AH)
Kitab al-Hawi fi al-tibb [The comprehensive book of medicine].
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Petrarca F (14th century)
Letter to Boccaccio. Print: Senilium Liber V Epistola iii in: Annotatio nonnullorum librorum seu epistolarum Francisci Petrarche. Venetiis: Torresanus de Asula (1501). Manuscript: Key passage in the late 14th / early 15th century manuscript Biblioteca Marciana Lat. XI 17 / Francesco Petrarca; fol. 28r, second column, lines 9 – 22. (Facsimile of MS: Petrarca F (2003). Seniles, (eds Stocchi MP, Marcon S). Venice: Marsilio.)
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Fioravanti L (1573)
Communication addressed to "Illustrissimo e Eccellentissimo Signor Al Protofisico Boldon e al Vicario di Giustizia", 22 xxxx 1573.
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Paré A (1575)
1575 Les oeuvres de M. Ambroise Paré conseiller, et premier chirurgien du Roy avec les figures & portraicts tant de l'Anatomie que des instruments de Chirurgie, & de plusieurs Monstres. [The works of M. Ambroise Paré, advisor, and first surgeon to the King, with figures and portraits concerning anatomy as well as surgical instruments, and several monsters] Paris: Gabriel Buon.
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Hidalgo de Agüero, Bartolomé (1604)
Thesoro de la verdadera cirugía y vía particular contra la común. Sevilla: Francisco Pérez, 1604, pp. 32v.
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de Fontaney F (1703)
Letter to F de la Chaise, from Cheu-Chan (a port in the Province of ‘Chekian’), dated 15 February. In: Lettres Édifiantes Et Curieuses, Écrites Des Missions Étrangères Par Quelques Missionnaires De La Compagnie De Jesus [Edifying and curious letters, written from the foreign missions by some missionaries of the Company of Jesus]. 34 vols. Paris: Chez Nicolas le Clerc, rue Saint Jacques, à l’Image Saint Lambert, 1703-1776. Vol. 7 (1707): pp. 234-244.
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Nettleton T (1722)
Part of a letter from Dr. Nettleton, physician at Halifax, to Dr. Jurin, R. S. Sec concerning the inoculation of the small pox, and the mortality of that distemper in the natural way. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (1722-1723) 32:209-212.
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Massey I (1723)
A short and plain account of inoculation. With some remarks on the main argument made use of to recommend that practice, by Mr. Maitland and others. To which is added, a letter to the learned James Jurin, M.D.R.S. Secr. Col. Reg. Med. Lond. Soc. London: W. Meadows.
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Jurin J (1724)
A letter to the learned Dr. Caleb Cotesworth, F. R. S. of the College of Physicians, London, and physician to St. Thomas's Hospital; containing a comparison between the danger of the natural small pox, and that given by inoculation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (1722 - 1723), 32:213-227.
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Boylston Z (1726)
Historical account of the small-pox inoculated in New-England, upon all sorts of persons, whites, blacks, and of all ages and constitutions. London: Printed for S. Chandler.
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Scheuchzer JG (1729)
An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728: With a comparison between the mortality of the natural small-pox, and the miscarriages in that practice; as also some general remarks on its progress. London: J.Peele.
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Cassem Algaida Aga (1729)
Paper relating to the inoculation of the small-pox, as it is practised in the Kingdoms of Tripoli, Tunis, and Algier. In: Scheuchzer JG. An account of the success of inoculating the small-pox in Great Britain, for the years 1727 and 1728. London: J. Peele, pp 61-63.
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Berkeley G (1752)
Farther thoughts on tar-water. In: Bishop of Cloyne. A miscellany, containing several tracts on various subjects. London: Tonson and Draper.
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Faure JL (1759)
Recueil des pieces qui ont concouru pour le prix de L’Académie Royale de Chirurgie Vol 8 [Collection of reports that competed for the prize of the Royal Academy of Surgery]. Paris, P.Al Le Prieur.
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Franklin B (1759)
Some account on the success of inoculation for the small-pox in England and America. London: W Strahan.
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Vage (1759)
An extract of a letter from Mr Vage, dated at Senegal, Oct. 15, 1759. Medical Observations and Inquiries 1764;2. London: William Johnston, pp 269-272.
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Repertoire du Regi[s]tre CC (1761)
Maladies Vénériennes, et la Chambre Noble [Venereal diseases, and the City Council]. Archives d’Etat de Genève, Arch. Hosp. Aa 104, 18 janvier, p 53, and 6 décembre, pp 135-6.
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Bilguer JU (1764)
A dissertation on the inutility of the amputation of limbs. London: Baldwin, Becket and de Hondt.
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Stone E (1764)
An account of the success of the bark of the willow in the cure of agues. Philosophical Transactions 53:195-200.
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Watson W (1768)
An account of a series of experiments, instituted with a view of ascertaining the most successful method of inoculating the smallpox. London: J Nourse.
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Millar J (1770)
Observations on the prevailing diseases in Great Britain. London: Cadell.
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Sims J (1774)
A discourse on the best methods of prosecuting medical enquiries. London: J Johnson, p78-9, 80, 86-88, 99-101.
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Millar J (1779)
Observations on the management of the prevailing diseases particularly in the Army and Navy. London, for the author.
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Alanson E (1782)
Practical observations on amputation, and the after-treatment, 2nd edn. London: Joseph Johnson.
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McCausland R (1783)
Facts and observations on different medical subjects. Medical Commentaries viii (1781/82), 247-96.
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Haygarth J (1784)
An inquiry into how to prevent smallpox. Chester and London.
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Black W (1789)
An arithmetical and medical analysis of the diseases and mortality of the human species. London: J Johnson.
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Robertson R (1789)
Observations on jail, hospital, or ship fever. New ed. London: for the Author.
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Robertson R (1790)
Essay on fever. London: printed for the author.
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Trotter T (1792)
Observations on the scurvy. London: Longman, pp 137-138, 184.
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Ferriar J (1792)
Medical histories and reflections. Vol 1. London: Cadell and Davies.
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Hunter J (1794)
A treatise on the blood, inflammation and gun-shot wounds. London: G Nichol, p 531.
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Ferriar J (1795)
Medical histories and reflections. Vol. 2. London: Cadell and Davies.
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Sutton D (1796)
The Inoculator; or Suttonian system of inoculation, fully set forth in a plain and familiar manner. London: Printed for the author.
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Fordyce G (1798)
A third dissertation on fever, Parts I & II. London: J Johnson.
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Millar J (1798)
Observations on the conduct of the war. An appeal to the people of Great Britain. London: for the author.
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Jenner E (1798)
An enquiry into the causes and effects of the variolae vaccinae. London: S Low.
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Cooper A (1801)
Farther observations on the effects which take place from the destruction of the Membrana Tympani of the ear; with an account of the operation for the removal of a particular species of deafness. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Part 1:435-451.
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Jenner E (1801)
The origin of the vaccine inoculation. Printed by DN Shury, Berwick Street, Soho.
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Fordyce G (1802)
A second dissertation on fever. London: J Johnson.
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Fordyce G (1803)
A fifth dissertation on fever. London: J Johnson.
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Percival T (1803)
Medical ethics or, a code of institutes and precepts adapted to the professional conduct of physicians and surgeons. Manchester: S Russell for J Johnson.
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Cuming R (1805)
On the use of aqua frigida in scalds, in epidemic ophthalmia, and the effects of cold on the human body. Medical and Physical Journal. 14:239-241.
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Pearson G, Nihell L, Nelson T, Keate T, Forster T, Carpue JC, Doratt J, Rivers F, Brand EA, de Bruyn P, Heaviside J, Payne T, Sancho W (1805)
Original Vaccine Pock Institution. Edinburgh Medical and Surgical Journal 1:513-515.
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Sutton T (1806)
A practical account of remittent fever. London: Robinson, p 16-17.
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Falconer W (1807)
A practical dissertation on the effects of the medicinal effects of the Bath waters. London and Bath: Robinson & Crutwell. 3rd edition Bath: Meyler and London: Robinson, pp 29, 40-41, 50-52, 72-74, 99, 101, 106, 115-116, 117, 124.
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Blane G (1813)
Observations on the comparative prevalence, mortality, & treatment of different diseases.... Medico-chirurgical Transactions, Vol 4, p 89-141, London.
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MacLean C (1818)
Results of an Investigation, respecting Epidemic and Pestilential Diseases. Vol. 2. London: Underwood.
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Hawkins FB (1829)
The elements of medical statistics. London: Longman, Rees, Orme, Brown & Green.
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Todd TJ (1831)
The book of analysis or a new method of experience whereby the induction of the Novum Organon [of Bacon] is made easy of application to medicine, physiology… London, Murray.
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Simpson JY (1847)
Account of a new anesthetic agent. Edinburgh.
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Treatment Committee of the Medical Council (1855)
Report on the results of the different methods of treatment pursued in epidemic cholera. [Metropolitan Report and Report on the Provinces throughout England and Scotland]. Report to the General Board of Health. London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office.
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McShane C (1856)
Medical Statistical Returns of the African Station. In: Statistical Report of the Health of the Royal Navy for the year 1856. London: House of Commons, pp 82-83.
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Béclard PA (1863)
Rapport général sur les prix décernés en 1862 [General report on the prizes awarded in 1862]. Mémoires de l’Académie Impériale de Médecine XXVI, Paris: Ballière, pp. xxii-xxxv.
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Liebreich O (1869)
Das Chloral, ein neues Hypnoticum und Anaesthetikum [Chloral, a new hypnotic and anaesthetic]. Berliner Klinische Wochenschrift 6:325-327.
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Bain A (1870)
Logic. London: Longmans, Green, Reader & Dyer p 362.
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Lister J (1870)
Effects of the antiseptic system of treatment upon the salubrity of a surgical hospital. Lancet 1:4-6 and 40-42.
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Crichton Browne J (1872)
Conium in the treatment of acute mania. Lancet 1:217-8.
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Maclagan T (1876)
The treatment of acute rheumatism by salicin. Lancet 1:383-84.
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O’Dwyer J (1887)
Fifty cases of croup in private practice treated by intubation of the larynx, with a description of the method and of the dangers incident thereto. Medical Record 32:557-561.
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Andrew J (1891)
Harveian Oration. London: Adlard and Son. p 16-19.
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Murray GR (1891)
Note on the treatment of myxoedema by hypodermic injections of an extract of the thyroid gland of a sheep. BMJ 2:796-797.
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Bettencourt R, Serrano J-A (1891)
Un cas de myxœdème (cachexie pachydermique) traité par la greffe hypodermique du corps thyroïde d’un mouton. [A case of myxœdema (pachydermous cachexia) treated with hypodermic transplant of sheep thyroid gland]. Compte rendu de la 19eme session de l‘Association française our l’avancement des sciences, Limoges, 1890, pp 683-690.
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Behring EA, Boer NN, Kossel H (1893)
Zur Behandlung diphtheriekranker Menschen mit Diphtherieheilserum [On the treatment of diphtheria patients with curative diphtheria serum]. Deutsche Medicinische Wochenschrift 17:389-39.
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Roux E, Martin L, Chaillou A (1894)
Trois cent cas de diphthérie traité par le serum antidiphthérique. Annales de l’Institut Pasteur 8:640-661.
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Finsen NR (1896)
Om Anvendelse I Medicinen af koncentrerede kemiske Lysstraaler. [On the application in medicine of concentrated chemical rays of light]. Kjøbenhavn: Gyldendalske Boghandels Forlag.
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Gorgas WC (1902)
Mosquito work in Havana. New York: William Wood and Company.
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Takaki K (1906)
On the preservation of health among the personnel of the Japanese navy and army. Lecture II: The methods for investigating the cause of beri-beri. Lancet 1:1451-55.
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Alt K (1909)
Behandlungsversuche mit Arsenophenylglyzin bei Paralytikern [Treatment experiments with arsenophenylglycine in paralytics]. Muenchener Medizinische Wochenschrift 56:1457-1459.
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Wechselmann W (1910)
Über die Behandlung der Syphilis mit Dioxydiamido-arseno-benzol [On the treatment of syphilis with dioxy-diamido-arseno-benzol]. Berliner Klinische Wochenschrift 47:1261-1264.
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McDonagh JER (1912)
Salvarsan in syphilis and allied diseases. Oxford: Oxford Medical Publications.
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De Quervain JF (1913)
Die Behandlung der akute Appendicitis auf Grund einer schweizerischen Sammelstatistik [The treatment of acute appendicitis on the basis of aggregated Swiss hospital statistics]. Correspondenzblatt für Schweizer Aerzte 43:1609-1624.
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Marine D, Kimball OP (1920)
The prevention of simple goiter in man: fourth paper. Archives of Internal Medicine 25:661-72.
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Chick H, Dalyell EJ (1921)
Observations on the influence of foods in stimulating development in backward children. BMJ 2:1061-1066.
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Banting FG, Best CH, Collip JB, Campell WR, Fletcher AA (1922)
Pancreatic extracts in the treatment of diabetes mellitus. Canadian Medical Association Journal 12: 141 - 146.
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Chick H, Dalyell EJ, Hume EM, Mackay HMM, Henderson Smith H, Wimberger H (1923)
Observations upon the prophylaxis and cure of rickets at the University Kinderklinik, Vienna. In: Medical Research Council. Studies of rickets in Vienna, 1919-22. Special Report Series No. 77. London: Her Majesty's Stationary Office, pp 19-94.
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Goldberger J, Waring CH, Tanner WF (1923)
Pellagra prevention by diet among inmates. Public Health Reports 38:2361-2368.
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Corry Mann HC (1926)
Diets for boys during the school age. Medical Research Council Special Report Series No. 105, London: Her Majesty's Stationary Office.
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Barenberg LH, Freidman I, Green W (1926)
The effects of ultraviolet irradiation on the health of a group of infants. JAMA 87(14):1114-1117.
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Minot GR, Murphy WP (1926)
Treatment of pernicious anaemia by a special diet. JAMA 87:470-476.
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Maier HW (1926)
L’ergotamine, inhibiteur du sympathique étudié en clinique, comme moyen d’exploration et comme agent thérapeutique. Revue Neurologique. 1:1104 (June).
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Ferguson FR, Davey AFC, Topley WWC (1927)
The value of mixed vaccines in the prevention of the common cold. Journal of Hygiene 26:98-109.
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Cecil RL (1928)
Specific treatment of lobar pneumonia. Archives of Internal Medicine 41:295-335.
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Leighton G, McKinlay PL (1930)
Milk consumption and the growth of schoolchildren. Department of Health for Scotland. Edinburgh and London: HM Stationery Office.
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Lewis T (1930)
Angina pectoris associated with high blood pressure and its relief by amyl nitrate. Heart 14:305-327.
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Walker MB (1934)
Treatment of myasthenia gravis with physostigmine. Lancet 1:1200-1201.
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Robin L, Van-Huan T (1935)
Essais comparés de prophylaxie médicamenteuse en région hyperendémique par la praequine et la quinine ou la quinacrine [Comparative trials of anti-malarial drug prophylaxis in a hyperendemic area with præquine, associated with quinine or quinacrine]. Bulletin de la Société de Pathologie exotique 28:650-658.
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Lennox WG, Von Storch TJC (1935)
Experiences with ergotamine tartrate in 120 patients with migraine. JAMA 105:169-171.
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Colebrook L, Kenny M (1936)
Treatment with prontosil of puerperal infections due to haemolytic streptococci. Lancet 2:1319-1322.
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Colebrook L, Kenny M (1936)
Treatment of human puerperal infections, and of experimental infections in mice, with prontosil. Lancet 1:1279-1286.
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O’Sullivan ME (1936)
Termination of 1000 attacks of migraine with ergotamine tartrate. JAMA 107:1208-1212.
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Parrot A, Catanei A, Ambialet R, Clastrier J (1937)
Comparative experiments in mass prophylaxis of malaria by means of quinine and synthetic drugs (quinacrine and praequine). Bulletin of the Health Organization of the League of Nations 6:685-765.
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Colebrook L, Purdie AW (1937)
Treatment of 106 cases of puerperal fever by sulphanilamide. Lancet 2:1237-1242 & 1291-1294.
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Bowie FJ (1938)
Chemotherapy in gonorrhoea: a preliminary report on the use of 2-(p-aminobenzenesulphonamido)pyridine, M & B 693. BMJ 2:283-284.
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Banks HS (1939)
Chemotherapy of meningococcal meningitis. Lancet 2:921-927.
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Abraham EP, Chain E, Fletcher CM, Gardner AD, Heatley NG, Jennings AM, Florey HW (1941)
Further observations on penicillin. Lancet 2:177-189.
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Pulvertaft RJPV (1943)
Local therapy of war wounds: I with Penicillin (article 1 of 2). Lancet 2:341-36 and 379-384
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Florey ME, Florey HW (1943)
General and local administration of penicillin. Lancet 1:387.
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Blalock A, Taussig HB (1945)
The surgical treatment of malformations of the heart: In which there is pulmonary stenosis or pulmonary atresia. JAMA 128:189-202.
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Goodman LS, Wintrobe MM, Dameshek W, Goodman MJ, Gilman A and McLennan MT (1946)
Nitrogen mustard therapy. Use of methyl-bis(beta-chloroethyl)amine hydrochloride and tris(beta-chloroethyl)amine hydrochloride for Hodgkin's disease, lymphosarcoma, leukemia and certain allied and miscellaneous disorders. Journal of the American Medical Association 132:126-132.
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Christie RV (1946)
Penicillin in subacute bacterial endocarditis. Lancet 1:369.
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Medical Research Council (1948)
Streptomycin treatment of tuberculous meningitis. Lancet 1:582-596.
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Merk R (1948)
Die Stickstoffsenfgasbehandlung der Lymphogranulomatose [Nitrogen Mustard Treatment of Lymphogranulomatosis]. Medizinische Klinik 43:629-35.
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Farber S, Diamond LK, Mercer RD, Sylvester RF, Wolff JA (1948)
Temporary remissions in acute leukaemia in children produced by folic acide antagonist, 4-aminopteroyl-glutamic acid (aminopterin). New England Journal of Medicine 238:787-793.
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Christie RV (1948)
Penicillin in subacute bacterial endocarditis. BMJ 1:1-4.
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Appelbaum E, Nelson J, Albin MB (1949)
The treatment of penumococcic meningitis with penicillin; a study of 125 consecutive cases, with 73% recovery. American Journal of Medicial Science 218:260-4.
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Baker C, Brock RC, Campbell M (1950)
Valvulotomy for mitral stenosis; report of six successful cases. BMJ 1:1283–1293.
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Baker C, Brock RC, Campbell M, Wood P (1952)
Valvulotomy for mitral stenosis; a further report on 100 cases. BMJ 1:1043–1055.
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Bickel H, Gerrard J, Hickmans EM. (1953)
Influence of phenylalanine intake on phenylketonuria. Lancet 265:812-813.
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McBride WG (1961)
Thalidomide and congenital abnormalities. Lancet 2:1358.
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Bross ID (1966)
Spurious effects from an extraneous variable. Journal of Chronic Diseases 19:637-47.
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Chalmers TC, Sebestyen CS, Lee S (1970)
Emergency surgical treatment of bleeding peptic ulcer: An analysis of the published data on 21,130 patients. Trans Am Clin Climatol Assoc 82: 188-99.
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Pennington E, Pennington S (1991)
Modifying chickenpox. BMJ 303:1614.
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Ellis J, Mulligan I, Rowe J, Sackett DL (1995)
Inpatient general medicine is evidence based. Lancet 346:407-410.
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Djulbegovic B, Lacevic M, Cantor A, Fields KK, Bennett CL, Adams JR, Kuderer NM, Lyman GH (2000)
The uncertainty principle and industry-sponsored research. Lancet 356:635-638.
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Alsbirk PH (2004)
Strategy for decentralized prevention of angle closure glaucoma in Greenland. International Journal of Circumpolar Health 2004;63 Suppl 2;315-319.
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Glasziou P, Chalmers I, Rawlins M, McCulloch P (2007)
When are randomised trials unnecessary? Picking signal from noise. BMJ 334: 349-351.
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Chalmers I (2017)
The evolution of fair tests of treatments over two millennia: a 23 minute audio commentary. Edited by Hamish Chalmers, using unbroadcast recordings made by Freakonomics Radio, with permission.
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Janiaud P, Serghiou S, Ioannidis JPA (2019)
New clinical trial designs in the era of precision medicine: An overview of definitions, strengths, weaknesses, and current use in oncology. Cancer Treatment Reviews 73:20-30.
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Lechuga RI, Castro AC (2016).
Dramatic effects of control measures on deaths from yellow fever in Havana, Cuba, in the early 1900’s. JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.
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Treasure T (2016).
Documenting the dramatic effects of operative treatment of mitral stenosis. JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.
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Treasure T (2017).
Turning blue babies pink: Alfred Blalock’s shunt for Fallot’s Tetralogy. JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.
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Marson Smith P, Colquhoun D, Chalmers I (2019).
John Henry Gaddum’s 1940 guidance on controlled clinical trials JLL Bulletin: Commentaries on the history of treatment evaluation.
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methods
Principles of testing
Pre-clinical
Dramatic effects
N-of-1 crossover
Crossover tests
Cluster allocation
Factorial design
Double dummy
Placebo effects